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Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy has announced that proposals for a peace deal developed with US officials are poised to be completed in a matter of days. Afterward, U.S. representatives are expected to present the terms to the Russian leadership.

Berlin Talks Yield Significant Progress, With Critical Obstacles Remain

After two days of discussions in Berlin, American negotiators reported on Monday that approximately “90%” of the contentious issues between Moscow and Kyiv had been settled. Despite this optimistic assessment, an actual conclusion to the conflict remains uncertain, particularly because Russia's lack of participation from the ongoing discussions.

In the early hours of Tuesday, Zelenskyy said that the US Congress was anticipated to vote on defense assurances and that a finalised set of agreements might be ready “today or tomorrow.” Subsequently, the U.S. would engage in discussions with Russian representatives, potentially followed by summit-level talks as soon as this coming weekend.

Defense Assurances and Allied Backing

“The plan involves five key agreements. Some of them concern binding security pledges: legally binding, that is, voted on and endorsed by the United States Congress,” the president commented to the press. He clarified that these assurances would “reflect the collective defense clause” of the North Atlantic Treaty Organization.

Earlier, American representatives did not provide precise information regarding the probable makeup of the security package or what would happen if Moscow attempted to seize additional territory after a peace deal. They did, however, confirm that the U.S. has no plans to place boots on the ground in the country.

Leaders from the UK, France, Germany and several additional European countries said in a unified declaration that troops from a “coalition of the willing” could “help with the rebuilding of Ukrainian military capabilities, in protecting Ukraine’s skies, and in supporting maritime security, potentially by conducting operations within its territory.”

However, they did not proposing these actions would constitute assurances matching Nato’s article 5. Furthermore, there is little sign that Russia is near agreeing to the kind of arrangement under discussion between Washington and Kyiv.

Moscow's Stance and Land Issue

On Tuesday, the Kremlin stated it had not received the details of the plans for security assurances. Additionally, a senior Russian diplomat, Sergei Ryabkov, declared that Russia would never accept troops from NATO member states being stationed in Ukraine “no matter what.”

The primary obstacle between the Ukrainian team and their American counterparts continues to be the issue of land. One proposal centers on Ukraine ceding the parts of the Donbas it currently controls, while the Ukrainian side prefers to maintain the current front lines. “We are discussing the territorial issue. You know, it is a central problem. At this point, there is no agreement on it yet,” Zelenskyy remarked after the Berlin talks.

American mediators, headed by two senior advisors, has suggested a compromise solution. This framework would see Ukrainian forces pull back, but Russia would not advance, with the demilitarised area established as “a free economic zone.” Russia has indicated it could use police and national guard units rather than the military in such an area, suggesting it would still seek to control the territory.

“Let me reiterate: a ‘special economic zone’ is not under the control of Moscow. Neither de jure nor de facto do we accept the Donbas region – its temporarily occupied part – as belonging to Russia. Categorically,” said President Zelenskyy.

Next Steps and Possible Scenarios

It is not clear how Moscow and Kyiv will resolve the land question. The Ukrainian leader has earlier mentioned that a negotiated arrangement such as a special economic area could be conceivable if the Ukrainian people approved it in a national vote. The major impediment is likely to be when the proposals are put to President Vladimir Putin of Russia, who has shown no indication he is willing to compromise on his war aims.

“Should Russia refuse all proposals, we will end up with precisely the situation we are experiencing on our flight right now – instability,” commented the president, making the statement after his plane departed from Berlin.

“I believe the United States will increase sanction pressure and provide us with more weapons if they reject the deal. I think, that would be a reasonable expectation from us to the United States,” he concluded.