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New Yorkers will find out who will be their new city leader this election day, in a race that will decide who runs and protects the nation's largest city at a moment when Donald Trump has vowed to deploy military troops to the city.

In this context, New York has experienced a mayoral election that has pitted two very different Democrats against each other. The election has become an increasingly bitter face-off, marked by accusations of racism and Islamophobia, but it is the political differences between the two main candidates that could have major implications for how the party fares in next year's midterm elections.

The Rising Progressive

In the progressive corner is Zohran Mamdani, the 34-year-old progressive candidate whose rapid ascent and grassroots campaign has brought global notice. On the establishment side is Andrew Cuomo, the ex- New York governor now running as an independent – and enjoying the backing of ultra-rich donors and corporations.

As the election approaches, it is the progressive, the one-time underdog who defeated his opponent in the party primary who is solidly positioned as the leading candidate. The candidate, who has campaigned on a agenda of economic justice and pledged to freeze rent for about two million New Yorkers, has outpaced his rival by significant margins across all surveys taken in the fall, and it is very much the younger man's race to throw away.

The Controversial Campaign

Yet, the former governor, who resigned as governor in recent years amid allegations of sexual harassment, has stated clearly he will fight to the finish, and not necessarily in an fair manner. He has criticized his opponent's goals as unrealistic, and in recent days chuckled along as a broadcaster made anti-Muslim comments about the candidate, who is a Muslim. Two weeks ago, the independent was widely condemned as racist after posting an AI-generated ad that featured a series of racial caricatures and showed his opponent releasing a group of criminals.

It's been a particularly ugly conclusion to an election that could be key to the direction that the Democratic party, struggling in its response to the former president's authoritarian grabs, adopts in the near future.

Broader Consequences

Should Mamdani wins convincingly, the party establishment who have declined to support his campaign will be forced to reckon with a message that has appealed to voters' frustration at inequality, soaring price rises and the political elite. It would be hard for the Senate leader and the House leader not to adopt at least a portion of the candidate's ambitious ideas about affordability, given the newcomer has created an excitement within the Democratic ranks perhaps not seen since the Vermont senator ran for president eight years ago.

However, if the former governor, who had been expected to win easily in the Democratic primary, achieve a remarkable riches-to-rags-to-riches victory, it could reinforce national Democrats' existing approach of considered, uninspiring resistance – a strategy that has infuriated grassroots members. A NYC rejection of the progressive's optimistic platform could persuade Schumer and Jeffries that the best plan is to stick to the center – even as polls show the present version of the Democratic party is widely disliked across the country.

Voter Enthusiasm

Voters in New York seem to prefer the Mamdani vision. Surveys show that Mamdani supporters are much more excited about their candidate than his opponent's supporters, something that has been apparent during the race. Mamdani's engaging content on social media, his optimistic vision for New York and his willingness to actually get out and meet people in the metropolis has attracted an army of over fifty thousand supporters, many of them young or first-time voters.

Personal Attacks

Yet, Cuomo, in his late sixties, isn't giving up. And with the risks stacked against him, the ex-leader has turned to ugly messaging in recent weeks.

After spending months throwing basically everything at his opponent to see what might resonate, Cuomo has narrowed his focus on attacking the candidate directly. He has labelled his rival, who was born in Uganda to Indian parents, an "radical", and appeared on Fox Business for an discussion with a rightwing host, where Cuomo asserted New York “will not survive” Mamdani as city leader. It reached a nadir recently, when the former governor laughed along and said “that’s another problem” after a broadcaster said the candidate would “cheer” another 9/11-style incident.

Campaign Dynamics

This strategy mirrors much of what Trump, who has sent the military reserves to Washington DC and threatened to do the same to NYC, has said about Mamdani, and perhaps that shouldn’t come as a surprise. A group of wealthy residents, including some who donated to the Republican in the last presidential race, have invested heavily into trying to elect Cuomo into office, as other powerful voices have urged the Republican candidate to withdraw from the race.

Political Histories

For the his team, and his wealthy backers, are concerned, it should not have reached to this point. When Mamdani, one of 150 New York state assembly members, launched his mayoral bid in last year, few had heard of him, and in truth, few even noticed.

Cuomo, by contrast, eased his way into the contest in this year and became the immediate frontrunner. He was the big beast who apparently held all the advantages. The classic establishment figure, he had wed a Kennedy and served in Bill Clinton’s administration. He became the state's leader in over a decade ago, seventeen years after his father, the former governor, left office from the same position.

Mamdani, who was voted in to the state legislature in 2020, does not have the comparable background. But his commitment to providing no-cost transit and free childcare – along with the rent control promise – offer a more positive vision of the city's direction than Cuomo’s dire warnings about “mayhem” and rising criminal activity, and his vow to hire more police officers.

Recent Challenges

Still, Mamdani has encountered some challenges in recent days, after footage surfaced appearing to show him implying the NYPD and the Israel Defense Forces were connected.

“We have to make clear that when the boot of the police is on your throat, it’s been laced by the IDF,” the candidate said in the clip, recorded at a Democratic Socialists of America convention in recent years. Mamdani, a vocal opponent of the Israeli government who has said the nation is committing genocide in the Palestinian territory, suggested he was criticizing cooperative programs between the NYPD and Israeli forces.

Powerful Moment

As the race closes, Mamdani appears to have won sympathy and support, however, for his reaction to his opponent's escalating attacks.

The progressive responded to Cuomo’s 9/11 remarks in an emotional video. In it, the candidate recalled how, when he first campaigned for the legislature, a family member advised to him that he did not have to disclose about his Muslim faith. It was a lesson, Mamdani said, that many local Muslims had been taught “again and again”: “That security could only be found in the margins of our community. That it is in those hidden spaces alone where Muslims could embrace their true selves, and that if we were to emerge from those seclusion, then it is in those silence that we must leave our faith.”

Speaking to the behavior of his opponents, who has alleged Mamd